Dean and Distinguished Professor of Law,
University of California, Irvine School of Law
Since the country's earliest days, federalism has been used as a political argument primarily in support of conservative causes. During the early 19th century, John Calhoun argued that states had independent sovereignty and could interpose their authority between the federal government and the people to nullify federal actions restricting slavery.
In the early 20th century, federalism was successfully used as the basis for challenging federal laws regulating child labor, imposing the minimum wage, and protecting consumers. During the depression, conservatives objected to President Franklin Roosevelt's proposals, such as Social Security, on the ground that they usurped functions properly left to state governments.
During the 1950s and the 1960s, objections to federal civil rights efforts were phrased primarily in terms of federalism. Southerners challenged Supreme Court decisions mandating desegregation and objected to proposed federal civil rights legislation by resurrecting the arguments of John Calhoun. Segregation and discrimination were defended not on the grounds that they were desirable practices, and more in terms of the states' rights to choose their own laws concerning race relations.
In the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan proclaimed a "new federalism" as the basis for attempting to dismantle federal social welfare programs. In his first presidential inaugural address, President Reagan said that he sought to "restore the balance between levels of government." Federalism was thus employed as the basis for cutting back on countless federal programs.
Hindsight reveals that federalism has been primarily a conservative argument used to resist progressive federal efforts, especially in the areas of civil rights and social welfare. It is no surprise, then, that in their questioning of the lawyers, the conservative justices expressed great skepticism about the constitutionality of key aspects of the Affordable Care Act.
But after reading the transcripts of the oral arguments (and listening to much of them), I remain convinced that this should be an easy case for the Court. The individual mandate is no different from social security tax that allows an exemption for those with their own retirement account. It is hard to imagine how Congress cannot regulate under its commerce power a segment of the economy that is $2.6 trillion, especially as Justices Scalia and Kennedy acknowledged because those who do not purchase insurance directly affect the rates of those who do. If Congress, under its commerce power, can regulate Angela Raich growing marijuana for her own personal use, surely it can regulate health insurance.
Nor should the constitutionality of the increased burden on the states to participate in the Medicaid program be a difficult question. No state is required to participate in the Medicaid program. If it chooses to do so, it must meet certain conditions. This is true of countless federal programs. Under the current Medicaid law, the federal government pays between 50 and 80% of a state's costs. But under the Affordable Care Act, the federal government initially pays 100% and in 2021 it becomes 90%. If the burden on the states under the Affordable Care Act violates the Tenth Amendment, then why doesn't the current law? There is a difference between forcing the states to do something and given them a strong financial inducement.
The oral arguments gave no clear sense of what the Court will do, except perhaps that there does not seem to be a majority to dismiss the case based on the Anti-Injunction Act. The justices asked hard questions of both sides and pundits offering predictions are just picking the ones that most support their views.
Every lower federal court judge appointed by a Republican President, with two exceptions, voted to strike down the law. Every lower federal court judge appointed by a Democratic President, with one exception, voted to uphold the law. The crucial question is whether the Supreme Court justices will see it any other way. Will the historic liberal and conservative divide over states' rights determine the outcome of this case? We'll know in June.